United Democratic Alliance Secretary-General Hassan Omar has opened a wide lead in a Mombasa gubernatorial online poll conducted by Mwelekeo Insights ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The final results show Omar leading with 60.2 per cent, placing him ahead of former Kisauni MP Ali Menza Mbogo, who received 31.8 per cent.
Mwelekeo Insights is a Nairobi-based research firm specialising in public sentiment, political polling, governance, economic trends and consumer behaviour.
The firm says its political research examines voter behaviour, candidate popularity and governance.
Omar’s lead places the UDA official in a strong early position as political alignments begin taking shape in Mombasa.
He currently serves as UDA secretary-general and represents Kenya in the East African Legislative Assembly. He also served as Mombasa senator between 2013 and 2017.
Hassan Omar, Menza Mbogo dominate poll
The poll indicates that the early Mombasa contest is largely concentrated around Omar and Mbogo, who jointly account for more than 90 per cent of the preferences recorded.
Mbogo was listed as an independent candidate in the survey.
Nyali MP Mohamed Ali finished third with 4.6 per cent, with the poll listing him under Wiper.
Businessman Suleiman Shahbal followed with two per cent, while incumbent Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir received one per cent.
Only 0.3 per cent of the participants remained undecided.
The figures place Omar 28.4 percentage points ahead of Mbogo. They also show the two leading contenders far ahead of the other politicians included in the survey.
Poll puts pressure on Nassir and ODM
Nassir’s position in the survey places early political pressure on ODM, which has controlled the Mombasa governorship since county governments were established in 2013.
Nassir succeeded Hassan Joho after winning the governorship on an ODM ticket in 2022. He had previously served as Mvita MP.
Shahbal’s inclusion alongside Nassir also points to possible competition within ODM should both seek the party’s nomination.
The poll, however, reflects the preferences of people who participated through Mwelekeo Insights’ online platform. The firm describes the exercises as live voting polls used to track community sentiment.
The results are therefore not an official election outcome, and the candidates listed have not yet been formally cleared by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission for the 2027 contest.
