The race for the Kamukunji parliamentary seat is shaping up as a tight contest after incumbent MP Yussuf Hassan and former MP Simon Mbugua tie at the top in the latest Mwelekeo Insights 2027 survey.
Both Hassan and Mbugua record 31.6 per cent support, placing them firmly neck and neck as political activity builds ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The latest figures show just how competitive the Nairobi constituency race could become, with neither of the two leading candidates holding an advantage over the other.
Alinur stays close
Former Kamukunji MP Alinur Mohamed, who is associated with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), follows closely with 25.2 per cent.
UDA’s Hussein Mohamed comes fourth with 11 per cent, while other candidates and undecided respondents account for 0.6 per cent.
The results leave only a 6.4 percentage-point gap between the two leaders and Alinur, suggesting that the leading candidates remain within a relatively narrow range.
Kamukunji MP aspirant Simon Mbugua. Photo/Screengrab by Kenya Digest
The latest figures also represent a major change from an earlier Mwelekeo Kamukunji survey published on July 1, 2026.
In that poll, Mbugua commanded 63.1 per cent, compared with Hassan’s 21.4 per cent and Husseinow’s 15.1 per cent.
Mwelekeo’s research
Mwelekeo Insights describes itself as a research firm focusing on public sentiment across politics, governance, economic issues, social matters, business and consumer behaviour.
Its publicly listed research includes a study on Kenyans’ perceptions of Gen Z after the June 2024 protests, with findings released on April 3, 2025. The research, conducted between March 1 and March 20, 2025, involved 16,800 respondents across the 47 counties. 51 per cent approved of Gen Z activism, while 44 per cent felt the movement lacked structure.
On July 24, 2025, the firm released findings on men’s attitudes towards bride price. 53 per cent supported the tradition while 47 per cent opposed it. Another finding showed 65 per cent supported sharing the cost of bride price.
Mwelekeo also lists research on young women’s attitudes towards marriage, President William Ruto’s January 2025 Cabinet appointees and the impact of Kenya’s fiscal policies.
Its 2026 polling has expanded into constituency, county and national political contests, including the Kamukunji race.
